April 7, 2011

Gelman on baseball

Andrew Gelman has published a few blog articles lately that hit on baseball.

First up, "Bill James and the base-rate fallacy", where he points out a flaw in James' reasoning that arises from the "availability heuristic".

Second, at The Statistics Forum, a comparison of predicting future performance at a significant transition point in "Minor-league Stats Predict Major League Performance, Sarah Palin, and Some Differences Between Baseball and Politics".

I don't have anything to add, other than to say it's encouraging to see one of the best statistical thinkers in the academy using baseball as a point of reference.

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