The Reverend Thomas Bayes never saw a baseball, but he would have enjoyed thinking about the probabilistic nature of the game.
December 7, 2010
Graphing run expectancy
Baseball Prospectus provided the world with the 2010 situational run expectancies, and Joshua Maciel has provided a graphic display. The graph was first posted to and then evolved as a result of feedback from readers at Tango's blog -- a fascinating process in and of itself. The graph is still a bit busy to my mind (but it's certainly not a Tufte-ian duck...), but it's a fine piece of work displaying what is arguably one of the most important pieces of baseball data.
And remember, it was George Lindsey who first published these data, back in 1963.
[Right: Joshua's run expectancy chart. Click to see it full-size, and visit his blog for all the details.]